BY JAMES T. MADORE | james.madore@newsday.com
August 17, 2008
ALBANY - Nearly 70 years of Republican domination of the State Senate could end after the fall elections - and with it would go Long Island’s main power base in the Capitol since 1974.

Democrats need to pick up only two seats to gain control of the 62-seat chamber. Their best prospects appear to be defeating veteran incumbents Caesar Trunzo of Brentwood or Serphin Maltese of Queens and winning an open seat in Buffalo, strategists said.

Voter turnout is expected to be high and to favor Democrats because of their party’s historic presidential candidate Barack Obama, together with angst about the economy and anger at President George W. Bush over the war in Iraq.

However, Republican senators still enjoy a fundraising advantage and GOP presidential candidate John McCain is predicted to do well in rural areas such as the north country, where his party hopes to win back a seat lost in February to Darrel Aubertine of Watertown.

“When you vote for either the Democrat or the Republican for Senate in a given district, you may change control of the Senate, which means there will be changes in state policy,” said University at Albany political scientist Joseph F. Zimmerman.

Experts credited Sen. Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre), who has been majority leader for less than two months, with reinvigorating the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, which under predecessor Sen. Joseph Bruno lost six seats in the past seven years. But they said the electoral map no longer favors the GOP.

“The direction has been Democratic … it sure is a difficult time for Republicans right now,” said Lee M. Miringoff of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But that doesn’t mean it continues that way. These Republican senators have name recognition, the power of incumbency … they could stem the tide.”